DevTech’s Dynamic Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) provides a forward-looking framework for assessing public debt risks under economic uncertainty, moving beyond traditional deterministic forecasts to model a range of possible debt trajectories. The approach integrates fiscal behavior, macroeconomic conditions, external shocks, and the feedback effects among them, using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the probability of different debt outcomes and identify risks associated with factors such as economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.

DevTech’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Dashboard translates this framework into an interactive tool for exploring debt risks and alternative economic scenarios. The dashboard visualizes probabilistic forecasts through fan charts that show both expected debt trajectories and the range of potential outcomes around them. Users can assess the probability that debt will exceed specified thresholds and conduct conditional forecasting to examine how shocks, such as lower economic growth, higher oil prices, or exchange rate depreciation, could affect debt sustainability. This allows policymakers to move beyond a single baseline forecast and evaluate fiscal vulnerabilities, alternative scenarios, and policy trade-offs under uncertainty. The framework has been applied to the African context and demonstrates that debt sustainability depends not only on the size of fiscal adjustment, but also on expenditure composition, macroeconomic feedback, and external conditions, providing policymakers with a flexible framework for evaluating fiscal risks and policy trade-offs.

View the accompanying paper here: https://devtechsys.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Dynamic-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-Africa.pdf